Thunder vs. Nuggets odds, prediction, start time: 2025 NBA playoff picks, Game 3 best bets by proven model

The top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder will aim to seize momentum in their Western Conference semifinal series as they face off against the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 on Friday night. With the series tied 1-1, the Thunder bounced back in a big way Wednesday, cruising to a 149-106 blowout win — their highest-scoring performance of the season. Meanwhile, Denver matched its season-worst for points allowed in the loss.

Oklahoma City (68-14), winners of the Northwest Division, boast an impressive 34-8 road record this season including the playoffs. Denver (50-32), the No. 4 seed in the West, has held its own at home with a 29-16 mark at Ball Arena.

Tipoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET in Denver. The two teams have evenly split their four previous playoff series and their four meetings during the 2024-25 regular season. They’ve also gone 3-3 against the spread in those matchups this year.

According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Oklahoma City is a 5.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 232.5 total points. On the money line, the Thunder are listed at -246 (bet $246 to win $100), while the Nuggets are +201 (bet $100 to win $201).

Before locking in any bets, it’s worth checking out the projections from the SportsLine Projection Model. This trusted model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, has generated over $10,000 in profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Heading into the 2025 conference semifinals, the model is on a red-hot 159-116 run, including a perfect 3-0 in the current playoffs, and it’s hitting 68% (23-11) on top-rated ATS picks this season.

The model has now run its simulations for Thunder vs. Nuggets and released its full set of picks and predictions. You can check them out now at SportsLine.

NBA odds for Thunder vs. Nuggets:

    Spread: Thunder -5.5

    Over/Under: 232.5

    Money Line: Thunder -246 | Nuggets +201

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